Global music sales to reach US$ 53.4 billion by 2028

Omdia’s latest forecasts predict that global retail music sales will continue to rise, marking the tenth consecutive year of growth in 2024. This trend of increasing sales will match the duration of annual declines seen in the early 2000s by the end of the forecast period.

The report projects that global sales will reach $43.9 billion by the end of 2024, surpass $50 billion by 2027, and hit $53.4 billion by 2028. These figures encompass consumer spending on physical and digital formats and services, as well as trade revenue from advertising, performance rights, and synchronization.

Subscriptions to platforms like Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube Music are expected to be significant drivers of this growth. Subscription revenues are projected to grow by 10.4% this year, reaching $26.8 billion from $24.3 billion in 2023. By 2028, subscription revenue is anticipated to exceed $34.4 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% over the period.

Advertising revenue is set to grow faster than physical sales over the next five years, with a 5.7% CAGR compared to 2% for physical sales. Despite this, physical sales will remain the second-largest source of recorded music revenue. Although the growth rate will slow to just 0.2% in 2028, physical sales are expected to be worth $7.3 billion. Combined audio and video advertising revenue is projected to rise by 8.1% this year to $5.3 billion from $4.9 billion in 2023, reaching $6.5 billion by 2028.

China is anticipated to climb the global rankings over the next five years, driven by a significantly higher CAGR compared to Europe’s leading markets, the UK and Germany. China is expected to surpass Germany by 2026 and the UK by 2027. While Japan will remain Asia’s leader and the world’s second-largest recorded music market by the end of 2028, China is projected to overtake it as early as 2029.

Omdia forecasts that China’s retail music sales will surpass $2 billion this year, increasing by 22.1% to $2.4 billion from $1.97 billion in 2023. Sales in China are expected to reach $3 billion in 2026 and $4 billion in 2028.

Simon Dyson, Senior Principal Analyst at Omdia, commented, “Music companies should be buoyed with the latest figures from Omdia. Global retail sales will have risen for 14 consecutive years by the end of 2028. Each year will mark a new record with previously piracy-affected countries now contributing to recorded music revenue. China is the one to watch as sales in the country are expected to more than double in just five years.”

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