In a recent blog post, Mark Mulligan, CEO of MIDiA Research, emphasized the uncertainty of predicting the future in the music industry. Analyst forecasts, he noted, are essentially informed guesses, representing structured numerical representations of experts’ thinking.
Looking to the future, MIDiA Research has released its forecasts for the music industry’s growth until 2030. The projections paint an optimistic picture, with global recorded music trade revenues anticipated to rise by 51%, reaching an impressive $42.4 billion by the end of the decade. Retail spending is also expected to surge, reaching $87.1 billion, accompanied by a projected 1.1 billion paid music subscribers worldwide by 2030.
Naturally, comparisons arise, with Goldman Sachs offering slightly higher estimates than MIDiA’s forecasts. Goldman Sachs predicts $50.1 billion in recorded music trade revenues and 1.2 billion paid subscribers by 2030.
One noteworthy aspect of MIDiA’s forecasts revolves around the differences in global subscriber growth and revenues, particularly concerning the most prominent Western music companies. By 2030, the number of subscribers is expected to increase significantly, primarily driven by Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Rest of World, which are predicted to account for four fifths of the growth. However, Western rightsholders, who currently have lower repertoire shares in these regions, may not fully capitalize on this subscriber boom as they did during the initial wave, which largely covered Western markets.
On the other hand, Europe and North America are expected to contribute more than half of the global subscriptions revenue growth due to higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and average subscriber months, resulting from slower growth. Consequently, Western rightsholders are likely to experience significant revenue gains despite missing out on audience growth in these regions.