The global music industry is on the verge of unprecedented growth, set to nearly double in value over the next decade, according to a new report from MIDiA Research. The report, which outlines projections from 2024 to 2031, highlights significant shifts in listener behavior and the emergence of new markets as key drivers of this transformation.
In 2023, the global recorded music market saw an 8% increase, reaching $58.1 billion. This growth was fueled not only by the continued dominance of music streaming but also by a resurgence in physical music formats and live performances. Interestingly, while vinyl has been experiencing a renaissance, CDs are also making a notable comeback.
Streaming Continues to Lead
Despite the diversification of the market, streaming services remain at the forefront. The number of global music subscribers grew to 737.9 million in 2023, marking a faster growth rate compared to 2022. MIDiA Research predicts that this figure will surpass 1 billion by 2027, underscoring the ongoing shift towards digital consumption.
Emerging Markets Drive Expansion
A significant portion of this growth is expected to come from emerging markets. While Europe and the US are well-established in their streaming habits, MIDiA points to the “rise of Global South markets” as a critical factor. China, in particular, is projected to become the second-largest recorded music market by 2031, while the US will maintain its position as the largest.
Mark Mulligan, founder of MIDiA Research, emphasizes the industry’s pivotal moment: “The music industry is at an inflection point. Strong growth lies ahead, but the business of 2031 will be very different from that of 2024, with Global South markets rising to prominence and the wider industry increasingly monetizing the fan economy rather than just today’s consumption-based streaming business.”
Future Value and Market Dynamics
MIDiA Research offers a bold prediction for the future: the global recorded music revenue is expected to reach $100 billion by 2031, nearly doubling the current figure of $58.1 billion. This growth will be driven by emerging markets, increases in streaming prices, and a broader definition of what it means to be a music consumer.
Earlier in the year, Mulligan predicted that there would be nearly 200 million music creators by 2030. This surge is attributed to platforms like BandLab, which democratize music creation and transform consumers into creators, akin to how TikTok has revolutionized video content.
Shifting Revenue Streams and Cultural Dynamics
Tatiana Cirisano, a senior music industry analyst at MIDiA Research, outlines the evolving revenue landscape: “While streaming remains the heart of the music business, a more diversified revenue portfolio is beginning to take shape. Over the next seven years, we will see a focus on monetizing fandom, the de-Westernization of music culture, and an increasingly bifurcated industry that separates passive, lean-back experiences from social, lean-forward exchanges.”
The report highlights the potential for new revenue streams, such as exclusive content for superfans and innovative monetization strategies that go beyond traditional music consumption. This shift is expected to redefine the relationship between artists and their audiences, fostering a more engaged and dynamic music ecosystem.
Conclusion
MIDiA Research’s latest report paints a promising picture of the global music industry’s future. With rapid growth in streaming, the resurgence of physical formats, and the rise of emerging markets, the industry is set to nearly double in value by 2031. As the market evolves, new opportunities for monetization and audience engagement will reshape the landscape, promising an exciting and prosperous decade ahead for the music world.
Click here to read the full report.
